I agree. MOST stuff we test is RATED ....BUT it has an OVERLOAD test as well something like 110 or 120% of rated load.(for us it's SET to prevent the meltdown of key electrical components OR SEALS if it's hydraulic)
MY understanding from my conversation with the company last week, was that production of ore at the 2% end of the spectrum would yield roughly 2 SSs per day, the current stated max capacity of the mill (which we were told was 60 SSs a month; 5 Lots).
THAT came from Dave Tretbar who no longer runs the mill (and wasn't his area of "expertise"). His statement may have been based on the premise of the PERFECT day, where the head grade and the mine and mill were in synch.
IF we were around 1% headgrade THEN, then it makes sense that as we approach 2% headgrades on a daily basis that the output of the mill would double to 4 Lots per month from the current average of CLOSE to 2%.
UNFORTUNATELY WE DIDN'T ASK THAT QUESTION (Based on WHAT headgrade).
SO......
WHAT WE ARE DOING NOW?:
BASED on the data we HAVE (DERIVED from the beginning of the 4th quarter/end of the third which we know is now LOW) we WERE averaging 2160 lbs of elemental moly per LOT and 48,000 lbs of concentrates per lot.
IF 5 Lots is MAX production then 5 X 48,000 = 240,000 lbs of concentrates or 60 X 2160 = 129,600 lbs of elemental moly.
WHAT WE SAID WE WOULD DO?:
Q: I have just read your latest press release. You mention total reserve at around 4.2 m lbs mo with a 4 year mine life. This only works out to a production rate of about 85,000 to 95,000 lbs mo per month. In the past there has been discussion of numbers at around 250,000 lbs per month. Am I missing something here? - B.C.
A: Yes. The capacity of the ball mill is rated at 100 tons per day. The pounds of concentrate produced in any one day is dependent on the grade of material being processed at that rated tonnage. All ore bodies have a variable distribution of grades within them that when taken as a whole have a life-of-mine average that does not reflect the daily or monthly variability. Jonathan set a cut-off at one-half percent mo and then calculated the total number of tons containing this minimum amount (or more) within the South Zone. In preparing SEC-acceptable figures, averges are required. However, actual production will see periods in which higher grades are processed but at the same tonnage rate. So in point of fact, there can be months in which 250,000 pounds are produced and months in which less will be produced, depending on grade. Secondly, the numbers reported represent the resource, not the reserve. The analysis that will arrive at a reserve figure requires an economic model to be applied, and that must await Jonathan's completion of resource estimates for the whole property plus evaluation of all costs (being performed by a different engineer this time). At the end of this process, we will have an SEC-compliant reserve estimate. Therefore, the numbers reported in the last press release tell us that there is twice the mineralization we had initially estimated in the South Zone and extends the life of that portion of the mine accordingly. Golden Phoenix plans to mine the richest part of the mineral body first, which is expected to result in higher production numbers for periods of time than the averages reported from Sprecher may indicate.
The Sylvia Vein delineates 4,220,240 pounds Mo (2,774,360 measured plus 1,445,880 indicated) along a 950-foot strike, sufficient to feed Ashdown's 100-ton mill for approximately four years. At an average grade of 5.8%, the mill is capable of producing approximately 295,800 pounds of CONCENTRATES per month. Once the Sylvia Vein is reached, monthly production is estimated to exceed 250,000 pounds of CONCENTRATES for a period of four years.
MY cocktail napkin:
SO....... if production is 250,000 lbs of concentrates instead(OF ELEMENTAL MOLY), THEN I have to cut my moly production/profit figures almost in half.......... OR TAKE THE OLD NUMBERS AND MULTIPLY THEM TIMES .54
Production would be THEN be 135,000 lbs of ELEMENTAL moly converted to 250,000 lbs of moly concentrates.
62 super sacks with an average of 2100 lbs of Mo. and 4000 lbs total weight. IF things continue as they have with other sales, the last sale made averaged $39,167 per bag. That figure works out at:
62 bags X $39,167 = $2,248,333 X .60 = $1,457,000 a month before taxes. $17,483,997 annually.
COMPANY SAYS THEY'VE BEEN AVERAGING AROUND $24 A BAG.
We have 23 Mil in tax credits............................. So the first 23 Mil is tax free?
Alternatively spreadsheet style.........@60%
135,000 of elemental moly X $24.00 = $3,240,000 X .60 = $1,944,000$1,944,000 X 12 = $23,328,000 our first full year
There after:
135,000 of elemental moly X $24.00 = $3,240,000 X .60 = $1,944,000 Minus $660,960 for taxes @34% = $1,283,040 X 12 = $15,396,480 annually
4 years = $52,585,920 (I was only off by 45.3 mil (rotf)
10 years = $131,464,800 (I was only off by 113.3 mil (rotf again)
THIS is because I did the figures of production using the concentrates number as elemental moly.........
The only thing we get paid for IN each super sack is the elemental moly........ the dilutive rock weight doesn't count.
SO at 54% elemental moly........ about 2100 lbs of elemental moly is in each bag (on average).
62 bags production per month would seem to be almost on target @ 100 TPD.
Therefore:
1 year of production equals 135,000 X 12 =1,620,000 lbs
4 years of production equals 135,000 X 48 = 6,480,000 lbs THUS the statement “…sufficient to feed Ashdown's 100-ton mill for approximately four years.”
10 years of production equals 135,000 X 120 = 16, 200,000 lbs
12 years of production equals 135,000 X 144 = 19,440,000
Same as it ever was....... SAME AS IT EVER WAS. |
