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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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From: jayt3/7/2008 2:46:28 PM
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Paul Senior - I was wondering if you have seen AWI? Noticed it today while going over the Stocks on the Move at IBD. +237% downside volume today. Anyway, I got lured in by the $4.50 special dividend they will be paying on March 31,2008 for holders of record as of March 11,2008 when I did a glance over. Mainly racking my brain on how to play this one. Day of the payout the stock should drop $4.50....thought maybe there would be an option strategy here, but no options traded on this one. Berkshire and KKR were sniffing around, however nothing materialized. .88 Price/Book .60 Price/Sales. Major holders is a hedge fund soup. Haven't checked to see if Iridian and SAC are still holding the same stake.
This dividend will represent 260m of the intended 500m where the other 240m will be paid out later in the year if the business performs. Performs to what benchmark I don't know. These executives are highly compensated and hold considerable stakes, so their propensity towards dividends is quite obvious.
They have bankrupted this one before...probably due to the Asbestos liability. A Trust is set up from that and controls 68% of the stock or 36.98m shares. sec.gov
Not sure what to make of this one. Like you said in a previous post : "there are too many opportunities."

** this was written last night, but not posted......As of today down $5.25 on +105% downside volume....Now I'm not sure if this thing is just an outright short or an opportunity in disguise. Not a fan of the industry they are in, but have heard Buffett remark that he is looking for consolidations in the space. Any opinion on this one? RGRDS - JT
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