david k said:
<< Allow me to bring you into the mix. Are you fully invested in the stock market right now per Bob Brinker's recommendation? Are you fearful of a recession? If you are fully invested, are you confident that we will not get a bear market due to Bob's assurances and your belief in his timing model? These are all relevant questions that many of my subscribers are discussing these days>>
--David, I am fully invested, but since I am retired and have critical mass that means I am only 50% in equities. 20% of that 50% is in the Hussman Growth Fund, which is very interested in capital preservation and uses various hedges to reduce risk. I believe it actually made money during the 2000-02 bear and so far this year is basically flat.
I feel I am well diversified (I also have a commodities fund, international funds, and my fixed income includes GNMA and TIPS in addition to MM) and could weather just about any bear that comes along.
I am not overly confident that Bob is right, but I have no doubt whatsover that he knows more than I do! -:) I have NEVER believed for a second that he has some kind of magical can't
miss formula, as honey and other bashers seem to think the non-bashers believe.
I think it is quite possible that Bob (and others too, obviously) has underestimated the effects of the credit and housing problems. Hopefully, he hasn't, and he will turn out to be right.
Even if he would turn bearish tomorrow and recommend a 100% sale, I would only reduce my stock percentage down to around 40%. I don't believe in selling out AFTER a big drop, and, again, I recognize that ANYTHING he or anyone recommends could turn out to be wrong.
Therefore, I would just make a minor adjustment, basically stick with my asset allocation, and ride it out. |
