Again some market comments
"
...
Handsets Decidedly More Mixed — The outlook in handsets was decidedly more
mixed. Component vendors have suggested that since posting an aggressive order
outlook in December, a major handset vendor has been below plan for January
and February and in March signs of order cancellations are becoming evident.
(let me make a guess here - I think its again Motorola.
The really "su**" these days and even the newer modells
couldn't drive sales sharply up as expected. So I think
they cut orders on newer phones, which they hope ramp well.
We know, that SPSN has practically no MOTO-exposure, but
Intel (Numonyx) ) Doesn't bode well for them if this is Moto.
In the public domain, disappointing February sales results from Unimicron and Ichia
underscore this perspective (Ichia commented that they saw shipment delays due
to “China snowstorms and “seasonality beyond expectations”). Noting that several
contacts have commented on TI’s limited success in 3G and issues with Ecosto
(already mentioned by Motorola), and that substrate vendors have seen declining
orders from TI, we maintain our below mid-point outlook for TI’s 1Q08 (midquarter
update on 3/10).
Representative Handset Datapoints
? 1Q08 to be “ugly” impacted by gaming and handset weakness
? Wireless handset is considered the worst of our sub-sectors led by IFX,
Mediatek, TXN
? Have seen some orders push out because customers are slowing down their
pulling from inventory hubs
? China inventory after CNY was a little too high causing push-outs in March—
unclear if this is high-end or low-end
? Right now they can see early May and expect to see a slight increase monthto-
month in 2Q08
? Major customer set an aggressive forecast but coming in below plan
? Another customer was weak in Jan/Feb but coming back in March from a
low-base
? Expected unit sales to be flat in 1Q08 and but now may be a little bit higher
than last quarter (47M + from 46M)—-US market is strong compared to
forecast driven by share gain
? February –22% driven by shipment delays due to “China snowstorms and
“seasonality beyond expectations”
TXN: Our handset data points do not necessarily reflect end-market sellthrough
but rather production ramps. Indeed, Citi’s handset analyst in Europe,
after checking with the company, adamantly maintains that NOK is running
inline with previous expectations (we do not disagree). Nonetheless, we
believe softness in the handset production supply chain has occurred post
Chinese New Year and is resulting in a slowing of component orders—substrate
vendors and foundries, while not perfect reads, both support this view.
Although the first half of TI’s 1Q08 was solid, we fear some softness in the
second half. Meanwhile, TI’s peers in analog are beginning to see signs of
order rebounds, but this comes after a weak beginning to 2008 (as evidenced
by NSM and MXIM). We maintain our below mid-point outlook for TI’s 1Q08
...
"
(Keep in mind, that TXN just warned yesterday. Not a big rev.
cut, but the headlines are in place)
BUGGI |
