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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: John McCarthy who wrote (75893)3/11/2008 5:29:43 AM
From: Mike Johnston  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
Good question John, not that I know of, I will however provide my own guess as to the potential psychological stages of hyperinflation.
I think right now we are somewhere between 2 and 3.

Stage 1 - Ridicule- inflation 5%

- those who are expecting hyperinflation are lunatics or conspiracy theorists

- inflation is low, rising house prices do not constitute inflation

- hyperinflation cannot happen here

- the Fed will not print money, because the Fed is a "private" bank

- nobody is able to stop "Kondratieff Winter"

Stage 2 - Denial- inflation 8-10%

- Rising prices are not inflation, it is just a one-time adjustment in price structure

- Low bond yields tell us that inflation is low and will stay low

- commodity prices are in a speculative bubble

- the Fed is powerless to stop deflation

- hyperinflation cannot happen, because demand is dropping and wages are not rising

- the Fed is a "private " bank and will not give money away

- recession is on the way

Stage 3 - Acceptance- inflation 12-15%

- Something is really wrong with the CPI

- Unemployment is rising, wages are flat and yet prices are still skyrocketing, what the hell is going on ?

- Why is M3 rising at almost 20% ?

- They are "lying" about true inflation rate

- It doesn't pay to save anymore

- Dollar is no good

- Interest rates are much lower than inflation rate

Stage 4 - Anger- inflation 20-25%

- The dollar is still dropping like a rock

- Is the Fed monetizing private and public debt ?

- The Fed is probably covertly bailing out banks and brokerages

- My life savings are being wiped out

- Why should I pay to bailout the thieves ?

- Why are government employees making so much money ?

- These 100 million dollar paychecks of CEO's are pi.... me off

- No way in hell I will continue to pay my mortgage if the deadbeats are getting government cash

- Everybody around is embezzling and stealing money, why should I put in 12 hour days anymore

- The crime is way up around here, it is not safe anymore

- How could I be so stupid ?

Stage 5 - Fear- inflation 30%-50%

- With prices rising so fast, how will I put food on the table

- No way I will be able to pay the heating bill this winter

- Gosh, is this the best that I can provide for my kids ?

- My savings will become worthless soon

- I have to buy some gold

- We have to buy this now, it will get more expensive later

- We have to liquidate our savings, we are losing 20% a year

- I worked hard and saved all my life and now I have nothing

Stage 6 - Panic- inflation 100% or higher

- Get everything out of the bank now and buy gold at any price

- Make sure you cash and spend your paycheck early

- We are going to Wal-Mart to buy anything we can still get our hands on

- Does anybody have any gold for sale ?

- Are they accepting anybody in Australia, no ?, how about Brazil ?

- They are giving $1 New Dollar for 1,000 old, but the limit is only 50,000 old.

- They rejected our visa application
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