@PCChips
What really surprises me every day is, that the market is
paying so much less for SPSN compared to our (indirect) peer
group. As said, I'm seeing QI and MU (DRAM + NAND) as
companies, which should be a guideline how memory stocks
could be valued. Just look at QI, which lost over 500Mio.
(nearly 600 with writedowns) alone last quarter. I assume
they will loose this quarter nearly the same amount. Even the
fresh 200+ injection will be lost a in short period of time
and cash is running away fast.
qimonda.com
I think book value at the end of Q1 will be around 2300Mio.
and at 1900-2000 at the end of Q2, which translates into
roughly 3000Mio-USD. Marketcap. in such a "desaster-mode"
is just over 1,5B -> price/book (forward) = around 0,5 which
is btw. already extremly low. Lets look at SPSN -> P/B now
at 0,21 - even if we take some losses into account, it will
not be as bad as 0,25x looking 2 quarters forward. So, its
easy to spot, that QI is 2x more expansive compared to SPSN
an QI looks from an business standpoint much much more worse.
I think they are now probably in the worst condition for all
the major Tier1 DRAM guys. So, even if we take such bad
assumption as a SPSN guideline, SPSN should be valued around
5$ and we haven't spoken a second about SPSN leadership
position or the ratio when we look at MU. That said, I stand
by my old number, that Spansion should be valued NOW! in the
broad range of 6-8$.
BUGGI |
