Hi John,
your analysis is right on the mark. I have these same conversations with my old dad in Texas. He reports that the conservative talk show hosts, which is all he listens to are saying all sorts of evil things about Obama. In addition, I think that Hillary is doing exactly what you say she's doing. And in fact, it is working to some extent. She has 36 more super delegates than Obama, even though he's catching up fast. She has 150 delegates less than Obama from the primaries and caucuses, but the fact she has that much is a testament to the fact that many think she is the safer risk. I've actually read articles that talk to people who voted for Hillary who say Obama inspires them more, but they think she has a better chance to win the White House.
So I agree. Hillary is playing the game you suggest, and really, it's her best shot at winning.
But look. I'm a statistics guy. At the end of the day, all things are possible, but the statistics can tell you what is probable. The probable outcome is an Obama nomination. Hillary has to get 70% of the remaining super delegates to win the nomination and overcome Obama's total delegate lead. That is a very tall order considering he has been scooping up more super delegates than she has since Jan'08. So I think her strategy, which you outlined well, is her best strategy for getting as many super delegates as possible, but it's not working as well as she needs it to work.
Now having said that, if she wins PA by a very big margin, then that will help her win more super delegates. I don't know if she can get the 70% she needs, but let's see how it plays out. |
