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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis
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To: ggersh who wrote (5098)3/16/2008 9:40:01 PM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) of 71442
 
I feel this is the last sharp drop (the dollar crisis!) as some
peggers depeg and US current account deficit starts to
improve. I would not buy it until the signal from the Fed
that it's enough.

We'll see if the Fed cuts as much as the markets expect.
See a potential long-term bottom @50, but who knows. We'll
see the ECB and others follow with cuts soon, then at some
point the Fed will start raising rates to protect the dollar.

I don't see "structural" US current account deficit - I see
it as a result of 1997-1998 Asian currency crisis. So, it
MUST get better as USD drops. IMHO. The plaza accord
drop was 50%, and the current account deficit was 3% of
GDP, so I figure the drop could be worse this time.
Overall, current account deficit has been stabilizing, and
already started to drop sharply against the Asians.
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