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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 366.51+1.2%Nov 5 4:00 PM EST
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (31098)3/16/2008 10:56:11 PM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (2) of 217546
 
It appears that Bear Stearns is now less than 2% of the IYF Dow Jones
IYF index, which the SKF is based on.

So the Bear Stearns component has done it job.

Here's what SKF is betting against now -

Top Holdings *(Daily) as of 3/14/2008
View All Holdings
7.36% BANK OF AMERICA CORP
5.67% JPMORGAN CHASE&CO
4.68% CITIGROUP INC
4.21% AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP
4.17% WELLS FARGO& COMPANY
2.59% GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC
2.50% US BANCORP
2.41% WACHOVIA CORP
2.24% BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP
1.95% AMERICAN EXPRESS CO
*Holdings are subject to change.

So who are the most vulnerable ? Citicorp obviously.

Unfortunately Both Bank of America and Wells Fargo have been prudent enough to avoid excess involvement, B of A actually picking up the spoils from Country Wide.

I don't know enough about American International Group, but their price was knocked down a while ago over the Hank Greenberg situation.

Goldmans Sachs will get to be one of the survivors/looters etc,
along with JPM.

I don't know enough to comment on the rest.

Lehman is less than 2% of SKF also.

bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Here is one decade of IYF. Note possible support around 60. I expect we will go about 10-20% under 60, and then recover.

Looking at long term charts for BAC, JPM, and C (Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Citibank). Citibank is only about twice as high as it early 1990s low, while the better run B of A and JPM are about 4 times as high.

So I think we are more than 2/3 of the way done with SKF, absent total price collapse.
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