PC market expected to continue double-digit growth, says IDC
(Hot systems
Press release, March 14; Joseph Tsai, DIGITIMES [Friday 14 March 2008]
Worldwide PC shipments are projected to grow by 12.8% in 2008 to reach 302 million units, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. Growth will continue at above 11% in 2009 followed by high single-digit growth through 2012, boosting annual shipments to over 426 million in 2012. Overall volume growth, combined with a steady transition to portable PCs, which generally cost more than desktops, will help offset falling average prices. The total value of PC shipments are projected to grow by 7.4% in 2008 to nearly US$280 billion, while shipment value will continue to grow by roughly 4% annually from 2009 through 2012, reaching nearly US$330 billion by 2012.
Portable adoption remains the primary driver in all regions, nearly matching record quarterly growth in the third quarter of 2007, and record annual growth in 2005. Increases of more than 50% in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) and Rest of World helped boost these regions to more than 36% of portable volume, while the US and Western Europe saw growth above 20% and continue to account for more than 50% of portable volume.
"The deteriorating economic environment can certainly put a damper on PC growth," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "However, fourth quarter growth was the fastest since mid 2005 and we should see continued portable adoption and PC acquisitions by both commercial and consumer segments. Replacements in mature regions supported by ongoing rapid growth in new users in emerging regions will add to pervasive technology evolution and falling prices to sustain growth."
"Lower cost consumer notebooks continue to drive PC market growth in all regions around the world," said Bob O'Donnell, vice president for clients and displays. "Consumers are increasingly seeing notebooks as essential personal communication and information gathering tools and we expect that will continue to drive growth and higher PC penetration ratios for several years to come."
PC shipments by region and form factor: 2007-2012 (units: million)
Region
Form Factor
2007
Y/Y
2008(f)
Y/Y
2009(f)
Y/Y
2010(f)
Y/Y
2011(f)
Y/Y
2012(f)
Y/Y
USA
Desktop & x86 server
37.0
(2.8%)
35.3
(4.6%)
33.7
(4.7%)
32.2
(4.3%)
31.0
(3.7%)
29.3
(5.6%)
Portables
30.0
23.6%
36.3
21.0%
41.7
14.8%
47.1
13.1%
52.4
11.1%
55.8
6.6%
Total
67.0
7.5%
71.7
6.9%
75.4
5.2%
79.4
5.3%
83.4
5.1%
85.1
2.1%
International
Desktop & x86 server
122.7
7.3%
130.4
6.3%
137.7
5.6%
145.3
5.6%
153.0
5.3%
160.4
4.8%
Portables
77.9
38.2%
100.0
28.3%
122.3
22.4%
143.3
17.1%
161.9
13.0%
180.5
11.5%
Total
200.6
17.5%
230.3
14.8%
260.0
12.9%
288.6
11.0%
314.9
9.1%
340.9
8.3%
Worldwide
Desktop & x86 server
159.7
4.8%
165.7
3.8%
171.4
3.4%
177.6
3.6%
184.1
3.7%
189.7
3.1%
Portables
108.0
33.8%
136.3
26.2%
164.0
20.3%
190.4
16.1%
214.3
12.5%
236.4
10.3%
Total
267.7
14.8%
302.0
12.8%
335.4
11.1%
368.0
9.7%
398.3
8.3%
426.1
7.0%
Source: IDC, compiled by Digitimes, March 2008 |
