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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc.
CY 23.820.0%Apr 16 5:00 PM EST

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To: blind-geezer who wrote (3567)3/17/2008 6:51:08 PM
From: bobs10  Read Replies (1) of 4590
 
you:

isn't pink sheets the kiss of death ... I can kiss my SPSN investment goodbye ???

me:

That was kind of tongue in cheek although the shorts would love to see that happen. We've got about another month before we get the earnings report for q1. Let's see what that's about before panicking.

From my point of view, unless the market goes completely to hell, SPSN should be in the black in H208 or sooner. One thing that's interesting is that SPSN was making 500 WSPW back in February when SP1 went to 2k WSPS. I think most of that was OrNand with some NOR tossed in. Those sales should be recorded in q1. With the increased densities 65nm brings, hopefully SP1 is concentrating on the largest capacity chips possible(highest selling price, no competition).

Depreciation is only going to increase $25M in q1 and I expect production improvements in Fab25 to largely offset the 10% price reductions in q1. So, it's possible q1 will see another large reduction in the loss with the GM staying close to 20%. I'm wondering if the B/B for WSD will remain at 1.3 given that the Chinese New Year is over. That certaily would bode well for the future as a lot of capacity is coming online in q2.

Realistically though, there are so many variables that making a guess about q1 is tantamount to a fool's errand. Still the picture going forward does seem rosier as SPSN slowly crawls out of the abyss it has been living in.
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