rofl!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! hilarious
from out on the web:
to answer your question(s)... i do not think this market resembles much of anything in recent history (say even as far back as 1974) since the 2003 double bottom. there's no public in this market, except via mutual funds, at least in the usa. but just who is in this market and for what reasons (what's their strategy (s)) is a lot like the same animal unleashed prior to 1929... which is to say extreme pools of capital (outside the system)... that up and to this point merely played a game of chicken across most asset classes. the game is over, and so is the strategy, broadly speaking. i believe this market should have never (rationally speaking) gone the way it did since 2003. that correction was never completed by most historical metrics, let alone over correct as much as it was over bought (from an extended future earnings p.o.v. i.e. the greater fools lie). i don't care where the money came from (fed looseness, regulatory looseness, etc etc) that got us to dow 14k and all the rest per se.
gold has proven to be the dorian gray mirror for all that has transpired since it bottomed at 252/oz. and now mirrors uncertainty, flight to safety, and a hard undeflatable asset, etc etc.
i am very serious when i think there should be no surprise if we were to retest the 2003 bottom, not just from the classic sense of a retest, but also in a continuation of what was brought to a standstill back then.
i of course listen to everyone, and would like this to end sooner than later. the more bad capital and mal investment that is wiped out the better. the more bad actors who are wiped out, the better. so that at least we might see a truely new market come into being and the next generation have a shot at making an investment the old fashioned way.
i am paying attention to smells, instincts, charts, and all of the usual.
but something is just not quite right. there's a certain superficiality to these repeated "saves" across the spectrum. there's a certain lack of public voice from the mainstream. it all still seems as if only guys like us are having a conversation, and everybody else is going about their business as if nothing has happened. maybe they aren't shopping, but i don't hear fear, i don't hear crying, i don't hear much complaining. its surreal. but i think i hear everyone holding their breath, and some of them trying to imagine what a nuclear sell down really means, what it looks like, and how it affects main street.
i got a call today from some friends who were in a panic to get rid of all of their fidelity funds etc etc etc. they asked me six months ago what i thought... and i said, well, the worst thing you could do is park yourself in 91 day t bills and wait and see if the smoke clears. you keep your money, and it was paying well above today's meagre 1% or whatever.
now they have awakened and are scurring around like mad rabbits.
i think a whole lot of people just like them might be thinking the same thing now. and would also account for the continued move into bills, all other things considered. where the heck else can you go in this country at the moment. NO WHERE.
i could go on... but i'd probably start repeating myself. i will add, some of us have been tracking this event since 1998 after thai baht. it took almost ten years for the game to implode. can "they" stop it??? hard for me to see how. let me know if you see how <g> i'd love to be a bull. it is so much more fun.
there is one last resemblence to recent history and that would be the stagflation of the 70's, but that then was in a whole other context. given there is absolutely no sign of a volcker on the horizon... i'd say lance lewis might be right in gold taking a run to 1500 and then later to well above that. but when it comes to gold... i try to stay as skeptical as i can <g>
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