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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout

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To: Telemarker who wrote (8518)	3/18/2008 7:44:21 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 50710

re: ["Maybe it's a case of sell the news, and we're now seeing why gold moved from the 600s to 1,000. Maybe not."] No, it's a case of anticipating and not reacting, of leading and not following. What was known/expected and what has already been priced in? -- Fed rate cuts -- runaway "real" inflation -- the Fed allowing anonymity at the discount window and exchanging treasury bonds for illiquid mortgage paper. -- coordinated global central bank intervention -- USD 70-72/YEN 98-100 -- stop gap bailouts of any "too big to fail" i-bank -- an economic stimulus package -- $100 Oil ...that was good for HUI 520 - my price target from 6 months ago when all of main street goldbugdom was throwing in the towel in August. ...my upside target of HUI 580 was based upon what we don't yet know...here's what is not yet priced in. -- that the BOJ does not shake out the Yen-carry trade. -- that the FED keeps cutting - perhaps as low as 1%. -- that the BOE & the ECB cave in and begin cutting rates. -- that the USD breaks sub 68. -- that gasoline hits $4 & Oil breaks through $120+ -- that the DOW finds an interim bottom and money flows back into the market. The wild card of course is a spiral into a deflationary collapse. Not at all impossible. And gold will NOT be a safe haven during the initial phase of deflation. It wasn't during the great depression and won't be on the next... Keyword being... "initial." Mo-later, S.O.T.B. And PS: Here's a chart you won't see in any gold bug rag... ..................."Better than Gold!" As far as a safe haven place to park cash, considering risk vs. reward? The old school, old money Swissie. ECB may cut rates, BOJ may intervene and prop up the dollar, NIKKEI is cratering ... and the Swiss have the soundest monetary policy and currency of any of the liquid and safe alternatives. The Swiss Franc, a fiat currency beating the return of gold! -- whodathunkthat!?!?! There's a message there. What's the value of one good idea?

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