prediction, Fed will ease only another 1/2% today,
and will save the other 1/2% for later.
wholesale prices rose by 0.3 percent in February,
driven higher by rising energy costs.
Outside of food and energy, core inflation jumped by 0.5
percent, the biggest increase in 15 months and a possible sign
that the relentless increase over the past two years in energy
costs is making its presence felt in other sectors of the
economy.
Inflation+recession=stagflation
This is round two in the great unraveling.
easy to predict, hard to buy stock with this.
Today is probably a short-covering sucker rally,
or call it a sucker rally. We just have not seen
what I think constututes real capitulation and blood.
These are great quotes:
"The Fed doesn't want to avoid a bad outcome – they want the
unwind to occur in orderly fashion"
" In other words, a slow-motion train wreck that wears people
down is preferable to a crash that wipes 'em out."
finance.yahoo.com
Here is where I stand--in an awkward place for sure.
I'm long the 30k shares of glgc/orxe, which are down
30 grand--that is the kid's loss, whoops. For daytrades
I took a $500 loss on that terrible Kosan trade, my 1000
shares "for fun", ha. I have my wife's brokerage account
which paid a little more than 5% over the past year, that
was a great CD, but rates are too low to be locked in to
CDs anymore. And of course I am always 100% cash--only if
the S&P paid a 5% dividend would I be moving into stocks
for my retirement money, and that ain't going to happen
til the market unwinds for a decade, like the 1970s.
Which could happen. |
