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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: John Vosilla who wrote (92387)3/18/2008 12:22:00 PM
From: bart13  Read Replies (3) of 110194
 
Would that I had a straight answer and decent certainty myself, but I am leaning towards being in a period similar to '73-76.

Huge oil shocks, both gold and the BGMI are tracking very similarly to the Dow/gold etc cycle starting in 1966, there's the '71 gold window close that compares to the USDX peak in 2001-2, massive ag and other commodity runs recently which also compares to '73-76, similarity in my financial crisis indicator, M3 growth, etc.

What we haven't seen yet is a real fall off in credit demand or much growth in U3 unemployment, although U6 sure has taken off and is just under 10%. Best guess is that we're in an early to mid '74 period... and we're only rhyming and not repeating, as usual.

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