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Strategies & Market Trends : Picks of the quarter
ATHR 6.075-0.1%Dec 24 11:37 AM EST

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To: Mike McFarland who wrote (5483)3/18/2008 10:35:16 PM
From: Patrick Slevin  Read Replies (2) of 20435
 
Important differences between now & the 1970s.

Some similarities, a declining Dollar, elevating CCI (see Gold, Oil, et cetera).

However one very important difference was that people on average had 70% of the equity in their home. You did not walk away from such an investment. That's not the case now.

You also had a Baby Boom Generation that was just starting to hit the middle & upper income levels. Today that population bubble is passing through, and shall leave the high spending 45-55 age bracket by the year 2012. Periods in U.S. History where population bubbles pass through are accompanied by weak economies.

Wish I could find the reference for that, but I don't have the book here.

<I'm 99% cash>

Well, if you really, really are preparing for 1970s, you gotta look into hard assets like precious metals or at the very least some form of commodity exposure.

But that's my take. I've been Long Gold since the $375 range, and stopped buying gold coins when the value of an ounce crested $450. However, I'm in no rush to sell them, because I still think it goes much higher.

Good luck. I think the 70's will look easier than the next decade. Unless you count disco music.
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