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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 386.88-0.1%Dec 3 4:00 PM EST
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To: Moominoid who wrote (31296)3/19/2008 1:18:22 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (7) of 218169
 
just in in-tray

quote
As I said yesterday, the rumor is that a big bank will go down in the next 3 months or so. One that will make Bear Stearns look like a "pimple on a bum." They seemed to imply that it would be a European Bank... UBS? RBS? Barclays? I don't know. But it would correspond with Jim's info that ECB and BoE officials / governors cancelled their Easter holidays.....

I still think that we are in a bear market for reasons previously stated and reinforced by Jim & David.

That said, it is worth remembering that in the 2000-2002 bear market we had 3 rallies of 10% or more and 2 rallies of 20% or more.
I can't see us taking out 1440 on the S&P, but that would still imply another 6-7% on the upside from here.....

I do find it fascinating that the US Transportation Index is up over 2% for the year, in spite of much higher fuel costs for these companies...

As for the Armstrong "cycle turn," I'm guessing that it is not for a stock market this time. Perhaps it is for the US dollar? For if a European Bank is really going bust, the Euro would probably get absolutely trashed, helping the US dollar for the medium term.....


unquote
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