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Non-Tech : Companies that BENEFIT from a recession
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To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (26)3/19/2008 12:45:47 PM
From: zebraspot  Read Replies (1) of 34
 
Thanks for the replies.

I tend to do best when I have the courage of my convictions, so not big on diversifying my bets.

Agree on your take on gold vs. all currencies, though I expect some weakness in gold for awhile, as central bankers probably intervene to prop up the US dollar in order to bolster their own exports.

I think a bet against the U.S. bond market is shooting fish in a barrel over the next couple of years.
I like the risk/reward of these 2010 TLT out-of-the-money puts. Could make 10-20x.
(Same as I could have made if I had stayed put in Breathe Right!)

You might find this interesting:
>>"The bond market debacle of the 1930s was one of defaults, while the dollar (which was still tied to gold) actually became more valuable, which kept interest rates low and made high quality bonds more valuable. The coming crisis will be different, with the dollar plunging and interest rates soaring. Bondholders will thus be paid back in increasingly worthless dollars. So where in the Great Depression high-quality bonds that kept making their payments rose in value while the bonds of weaker borrowers collapsed, in the coming [period] all dollar-denominated bonds will fall" - James Turk, from his 2004 book, 'The Coming Collapse of the Dollar'. <<

Best regards.
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