I work some numbers for next Q.
This Q's revenue break down:
VCD $37.6M
DVD $4.1M
DVB $40.0M
Alex said VCD will grow, "materially" for the next 2Qs
I think 20% growth, or add $7.5M
Alex was uncertain about DVD, but did say it would grow next Q. He also said it should "uptick" for the christmas season.
I think 50% growth, or add $2M
In DVB, Alex said set tops had a "Quantum Leap" this Q. He lumped Divi and encoder sales in this area. He said it won't grow as fast in Q4. Small growth in Divi sales, but it should grow.
I think 10% growth, or add $4M
That would mean revenues will grow by $13.5M, Q over Q. Total would be $95.2M
I think I'm low on VCD, but we need to watch ASPs. DVD could be bigger with more design wins. DVB is about right.
Of the $40M in DVB, I haven't been able to break down Divi, encoders, and set tops, in the past. I got some clues today.
I think set tops were worth about $10M
Encoders and Divi revenue are about even.
Encoder chip sales about $14 to $15M.
Divi revenues were worth $15 to $16M.
Also, John Hagedorn made a penney per share all by himself. He saved almost $500K by hedging and investing cash. This all dropped to the bottom line, and didn't cost Cube anything except his pay. It looks like he's doing a great job.
In Q 2, I had to have under counted VCD units. This means that Cube's market share has been bigger then I thought.
When asked about the size of the VCD market in 1997, Alex said about 15M units, twice the level of last year. By my count, we are there already, with the largest Q of the year still coming.
1997 VCD unit sales will be 21M to 22M units.
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