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Politics : View from the Center and Left
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To: JohnM who wrote (54845)3/21/2008 10:01:32 AM
From: Dale Baker  Read Replies (1) of 542087
 
The math gets really interesting. Using AP's site, I see Obama only 405 delegates short with 627 pledged and 332 supers at stake, excluding the pledged delegates from FL and MI still in limbo.

Obama only has to take 42% of that total pie to win. Hillary needs 58%, or 525 total delegates. Since she is unlikely to win much more than 350 of the pledged delegates at best, she needs more than half the remaining supers to lock it up.

Obama can take 300 pledged and 1/3 of the remaining supers and go over the top. He would also control the rules committee with more pledged delegates in his pocket. Hillary needs almost 400 of the remaining pledged delegates to make up the gap.

Watching how the supers break, one by one, in the next several weeks will be pivotal. Come to think of it, for Obama to win on pledged delegates and only have half or less of the supers would say a lot about who made the final decision in the party.
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