@SFUN 2.
I bought in at 7,85$. At that time Euro/Dollar was around
1,51, which is now a 2% loss for me. But alot will depend,
how the stock and the currency will move up to june.
"
...
Under the terms of the definitive merger agreement and its amendment, each Saifun shareholder received 0.7238 shares of Spansion Class A Common Stock and approximately $6.20 per share in cash for each Saifun ordinary share
...
"
A will get 6,20$ + 0,7238x2,5 (now) = 8$. If SPSN trades at
2,5$ in june and if the dollar will not move, my SFUN hold
will be mildly negative. Not that I will strongly complain
for the hard stock market period of time, but I hoped, I
could make a "safe" arbitrage trade.
I will have to wait and see how SPSN will trade in the next
time. All I could say is, that SPSN is aggressivly underpriced
to its peers, which I have said already a few times - nothing
changed.
Alot will depend on earnings and outlook in april, but from
an sentiment standpoint I expect more bad news to follow, not
from SPSN, but from the DRAM and NAND guys. I expect MU's
numbers will be much worse than the market expects now and
I'm seeing very tough times for Qimonda. At this point their
cash numbers seem to be high:
qimonda.com
Cash 509
mark. sec = 237
long-term inv. = 594
(+ some fresh cash
The total principal amount of the Notes is therefore USD 248.1 million. Qimonda will receive all the proceeds from the sale of the additional Notes. -> around 165Mio. Euro)
But I assume, they will loose again 500-600Mio. this Q1
quarter. I expect numbers as bad as 650Mio. (loss). So, all
the "easy" fast cash is gone in one quarter. I don't think
that will be the case, because they will make some more debt,
but 300-400Mio. could be gone fast. If DRAM doesn't turn,
the Q2 quarter will not look that different. At this point,
QI looks very very bad.
Otherwise, I don't want to see SNDK numbers this quarter too.
Estimates are at 27C for them, I expect a green zero, not
more. Overall not a good sentiment for memory stocks. Will
this be a driver for SPSN? Probably not, but the stock is so much
down, it seems, that all news are already priced in.
BUGGI |
