2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 368.78

+0.2%

Nov 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: benwood who wrote (31501)	3/21/2008 6:32:39 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) of 217532

just in in-tray from another quote I draw some conclusions/trading implications from this week’s research piece. Cs claims that we have reached an inflection pt in liquidity crisis because of fed’s many actions this past week. I tend to agree. thots going fwd financials should no longer be shorted. I would be neutral on this sector and think there are better longs out there. As historical context, Financials are off 50-60% in the past 5 mths which is similar to the 1998 and 1991 moves, but I’m still not tempted to nibble. there is little revenue growth for 2008 for this sector and so no need to buy and still have risks due to recapitalziatio, further markdowns, etc, etc. inflation is now dead and has sufficiently lagged the start of us recession in dec 2007. This has immediate implication: go long duration for 30yr tsys as I think 2/10s will flatten from 200bps to 150bps. 10s should trade down to 3%; Short oil.. see previous email/analysis. continued shorts on s&p500 should work over the next 12-24 mths as credit contraction across all industries and all regions continue. Particularly vulnerable are foreign equity inflows which have funded equity mkts of India and turkey which should be shorted. china has sufficient domestic funds to fund themselves although recent leadership comments indicate its more worried about food inflation and tibet than supporting shanghai stock mkt. neutral on china stocks. currencies: I’m neutral on $ as we enter 7th year of its weakness (bush was famous for coming in as 1st term president for not wanting to protect bob rubin’s $ strength as bush felt $ weakness would counter asia ’s manipulated currency weakness). In addition, I think usa economy will climb out faster than japan and Europe . Although cs recent change in $/yen forecast from 98 to 92 over next 3 mths. By summer, at end of fed easing cycle, will it be time to go long us$? Ur feedback welcome. unquote

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