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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 312.76

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To: Kirk © who wrote (38700)	3/22/2008 10:52:07 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95536

Hi Kirk, Remembering back about two years (before my favorite Cohu fell out of favor),I was enjoying Cohu's climb up as they hung with Vsea and Lrcx. Your recent comments about Lrcx have also reminded me of the recent decline of Vsea as well. I think Amat is enjoying their solar fame also. If tech is to really get going I'd think all of these stocks need to go in unison. Can't help but think there is a hedge fund manipulation presence in all. Intel and Amat appear to be giving us big cap leadership - this is a must. Lrcx and Vsea have been the leaders before Intel crawled out of its doldrums and now are getting some short pressure - IMO from an overcapacity in memory and declining ASP's. Cohu had been stomped and is now benefiting from a short squeeze (just occuring this week). I think that logic will show good growth this year and lead into 09.When Lrcx and / or Vsea can give guidance about logic Capex and then Memeory coming on board we'll all see a nice sincing of the sector. Lrcx and Vsea are great values and much remind me of the shakes that Nvls went through in October of 98. They'll grind this thing down till positive divergences pop up everywhere and great buys will be both now and at even lower levels (if they occur). A year from now it won't matter if you got the perfect buy aor a buck or two higher. Always keep some powder dry and always buy in tranches. Enjoy the discount as the price mark up phase is near IMO. stockcharts.com Bob

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