Right, but it is likely to drop significantly today. We could
see a breakdown of VIX this week below the triangle - a fake
move? This is a mega manipulative effort by the Fed, so I'd
give it some time, as long as a few weeks, perhaps.
However, when it fails,
a total melt will be on the way, because the Fed is almost
completely out of ammo, both on the interest rates front and
on their account facilities, exactly why we are seeing
such a desperate effort. Note that decreased volatility
in currencies will contribute to carry trade, which will
now sell the dollar.
The big rally is risky and will be event-prone. Get on it
early, and exit early. The easy trade was probably last
week, as VIX will likely print 24 this morning -g-
This is not the end of the crisis. We may see even more
manipulation, but it will be very hard to stop the derivatives
melt, even for Central banks. |
