@Bob
"
Currently, I see Q2 close to, or at BE.
"
It would be a pleasure to see, but its highly unlikely, when
you ask me. Your right, much will depend on the cost side,
but this takes time, as you know as well.
SP1 is producing now at near near-term "max-rates", which
means, that output in Q3 will be constantly from 2000+ wafers
and yields should be better too. I don't know, how fast SPSN
could go away from TSMC products, but I'm seeing here again
"fine" numbers in Q3 - means, I expect relativly small numbers
in Q1, near 0 costs in Q2 and practically zero costs in Q3
as more and more 300mm SP1 wafers appear for the market.
Alot will depend on market demands too - I can't predict the
future here. But as FAB25 also grows (better yields, more
65nm, more wafer starts) and as SP1 ramps, this should be
more than equal TSMC + demand ups - but this has to be seen.
BIST will reduce costs as well, thats right, but when I
understand this correctly, this will "only" appear for new
products. So I don't know, if they will do this for 90nm
(FAB25) too over time? I assume, that fresh SP1 products will
"convert" too 100% BIST over the next quarters, which will
save costs, but its again a process.
When we speak about BE, the main "driver" will be ASPs and
volume - ASPs clearly and by far the number ONE! If we could
assume, that ASPs will be constant or somewhat up (thats a
strong assumption), it will be relativly "easy" to expect
good numbers. If prices go the route they went already the
last two years, SPSN will not show BE - thats clear too, at
least for me. As said a dozen times - I really hope that
Numonyx will be in place at the end of Q1 or early Q2. If
this company (around 25-30% MSS) has to operate very much
different (that will be the case), I'm really wondering, what
prices will do, especially if (then) 60-70% of the market are
in the hand of two companies which have to show better numbers
, much better ones, not tomorrow, better yesterday. That will
be the question for the next 2-3 quarters.
BUGGI |
