Here is some sentiment data from my newsletter published yesterday. - David
Excerpt from David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials, and Special Alert E-Mail Service. Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2008
March 22-23, 2008 Newsletter
SENTIMENT
Investors Intelligence: According to the latest publicly available numbers from Investors Intelligence, the number of bullish advisors fell yet again this week to 30.9%. Conversely, the percentage of bearish advisors rose to 44.7%. Using the formula, Bulls/(Bulls + Bears) the sentiment ratio is 40.87%. As noted last week, this indicator is giving off a BUY signal. The four-week moving average is 47.49%.
Before we move on to the next sentiment indicator, I want you to check this out. I searched my newsletter archives for the period of early October, 2002. That was the ultimate low of the last bear market when the S&P 500 had lost 50% of its value, and the Nasdaq Composite had lost nearly 80%. At that time, the Investors Intelligence survey showed that 31% of advisors polled were bullish and 39.1% were bearish. That is almost exactly where we are today! That is why I am so excited about this indicator.
AAII: According to the latest poll conducted by the American Association of Individual Investors, only 25.2% of individual investors are bullish and 54.3.2% are bearish this week. Using the formula [(bulls)/(bulls + bears)], the sentiment ratio is 31.70%. The four-week average is 36.20%. Great numbers all around.
CBOE Put/Call Ratio: The put/call ratio closed Friday at 1.1. The 10-day moving average is 1.24 and the 21-day moving average is 1.19. This sentiment gauge is looking great as well.
Money Flow: According to AMG Data in the week ending March 19, 2008, equity funds (including ETF activity) reported net cash inflows of $22.93 billion with Domestic funds reporting net inflows of $24.19 billion and non-domestic funds reporting net outflows of -$1.2 billion. Tremendous numbers!!! We haven't seen that kind of money flowing into domestic funds in a long time.
All in all, the sentiment picture looks just fabulous. |
