As we said here not long ago, the real players in Iraq are not AQ at all....
Is Iraq Ready to Deal
With Muqtada al Sadr?
By JOSEPH SCHUMAN
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE
A dangerous paradox is unfolding in Baghdad and Basra: The government offensive against wayward forces of Muqtada al Sadr marks one of Iraq's most ambitious efforts to deal with its own security troubles, yet it puts at risk the decline in violence since last year that has allowed U.S. forces to stand down from the peak deployment of the so-called surge.
Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki today issued an ultimatum: Gunman in Basra, Iraq's second-largest city and the key hub of its southern oil industry, must surrender their weapons in three days or … the consequences weren't clear. An adviser to the prime minister, Sadiq al Rikabi, tells the Associated Press that any gunman who fails to turn over his weapons "will be an outlaw." The operation in Basra, visited by Mr. Maliki himself yesterday, seems far more serious than the "decisive" assault he threatened in January against Sunni insurgents in the northern city of Mosul, where violence hasn't abated. Tens of thousands of Iraqi troops, backed by the U.S., are reportedly participating. But there are big differences between ethnically mixed Mosul and predominantly Shiite Muslim Basra, where the line has often blurred between militia members and the local police force. And the assault on militias in Basra has already set off violence elsewhere in the country.
Iraqi officials tell the AP that while 40 people have been killed so far in Basra and some 200 wounded there, at least 15 have been killed and 100 hurt by fighting that broke out between government security forces and Mr. Sadr's Mahdi Army in Baghdad. The capital also saw the third day this week of rocket attacks on the Green Zone, and this time three Americans were seriously injured, a U.S. Embassy spokeswoman tells the AP. At least some of the rockets earlier this week came from the Sadr City neighborhood that has at times been under de facto control of the Mahdi Army. The New York Times reports the militia has taken over some government checkpoints there, and that Mahdi commanders say they are reacting to what they see as the government's decision to side with the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq against Mr. Sadr. Sciri, as the party is known, is a far more important faction of Mr. Maliki's Shiite-dominated coalition than Mr. Sadr's followers, and its Badr militia has often faced off against the Mahdi Army.
Mr. Sadr -- who essentially surrendered and lived to fight another day against U.S. forces twice in 2004 before joining his political forces to Mr. Maliki's two years later -- has thus far called only for civil disobedience in response to the government move. It isn't clear whether he is also condoning or ordering the violence without saying so -- as he has seemed to do in the past -- or has again lost control of militia factions that have frequently splintered from the main Mahdi command structure, and which have grown impatient with dictates from the government and the prospect of indefinite U.S. military domination in Iraq. Either way, this week's escalation of fighting doesn't bode well for American hopes in Iraq.
The relative ebb of sectarian and insurgent attacks that began last summer and leveled off in recent months has been attributed to at least three factors: The increased American military presence of the surge; a willingness of Iraqi Sunnis in some areas to join the so-called awakening councils financed by and allied with U.S. forces; and the truce declared by Mr. Sadr, who had targeted both Sunni Muslim Iraqis and Americans. With Washington currently discussing how, when and whether to redeploy its forces in Iraq -- even if big decisions may be left to the next president -- a lot is riding on how this week's fighting concludes. |
