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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: The Ox who wrote (92802)	3/26/2008 8:17:07 PM
From: Robin Plunder	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Here is a summary of Jim Sinclair's comments at luncheon speech today in NY: "XXXXXXXX reporting from AMEX pm lunch where Jim Sinclair regaling overcrowded room at Harvard Club in midtown Manhattan. While I am not a big fan know a lot of u are so playing w my treo so here are a few highlights. Jim sez only comparable to now is weimar times. Gold to 1650 (sounds low if this is true). Derivatives are bad. Clean balance sheets good. Who os on long side of hedges? He sez Carlyle Group. 80% chance metals won't fall.. overseas consumption will keep base metals high. you are in "rolling bull market" for "most disagreeable reasons possible". China is now #1. India n US in competition fr #2. we are not yet in most difficult phase. Fed won't let SIVs fail. "it is not mortgages". they didn't want to know as making too much money. Credit deriv total 22 trillion. CP market in gridlock. If CP in gridlock economy goes upside down. For this reason NOONE SHOULD CRITICIZE FED (did I imagine he said that??) ACTIONS. To offset risks and avoid weimar scenario own metals (surprise). future will be different. He has invested a million into site as a public service. He is half Jewish - half Irish. "likes to make money n loves to fight". Q+A seems to like BSC bailout. Dsnt think fed should be lender of last resort but was necessary n don't criticize (did hear right). If they hadn't we wldnt be hvng nice lunch today. 50 % of financial sector profits were derivatives. That is gone. (cheesecake fr dessert. ) prices will rise while business declines. It is out there right now. Stagflation here. Mining costs will rise about 7 % a year. Plug fr Tanzania. "thank god I didn't go to Russia". China interesting but not easy. Mid east hs lots of money. (ridiculous they hv no mike to hear questions only answers) all markets different. Will not repeat exact like 80s. Asia one difference. Much higher low. You can buy any break in gold but don't extend yourself. Will not break through 1k without correction.prob high 9s. He trades like crazy but does nt tlk about it. likes CHF as currency maybe CAD. wld trade a little more than normal at this time. he does not expect confiscation since carlyle n others benefit from rise. Etf's ok if u hv no alternative. a million dollars is a lot of money. That's all folks. Crowd here much bigger n more institutional than in years past. Maybe sectoral but also due to move uptown (in past held downtown near AMEX). asked Sinclair after lunch two questions. If u r right about weimar then 1650 is nothing, no? Right but don't want to pump n see people get hurt. Know its going to 1650 (n cn revise later). just because gold rises doesn't mean jrs doing anything, right? Funds were long majors, short jrs. That is now unwinding. (i believe that too - but he hd no coherent comment about immed future fr jrs.)"

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