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Biotech / Medical : CEPH - CEPHALON

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From: tom pope	3/27/2008 9:59:06 AM
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Merrill Cephalon, Inc. (CEPH, US$65.89, C-1-9) Amrix could drive CEPH higher. We reiterate our Buy rating on CEPH with PO $73. CEPH’s muscle relaxant Amrix has recently begun to pick up steam. While Amrix could have significant sales potential, the length of exclusivity could be limited by a lack of patent protection. CEPH is seeking issuance of a patent that could extend protection of Amrix beyond 2/1/2010, when its marketing exclusivity ends. Amrix scripts and market share have improved over the last several weeks. In order to help stimulate the product, CEPH recently made some changes to its sales organization, brought on a contract sales force, and began a sampling program. CEPH is seeking issuance of a patent that could expire in 2023. We calculated a NPV for Amrix for three peak share scenarios over three time periods. The 6% peak share case yields an NPV of $0.47-8.86, while the 8% share case yields an NPV of $0.67-12.52.

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