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Biotech / Medical : Celgene-CELG

CELG 108.24

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Nov 22 4:00 PM EST

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From: tom pope	3/27/2008 10:02:02 AM
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Merrill Revlimid NDC data tracking in-line to modestly ahead Over the past few quarters, we estimate that NDC weekly data for Revlimid has managed to capture about 50-60% of U.S. sales. Thus far in 1Q08, we estimate NDC weekly Revlimid sales data are tracking in-line to modestly ahead of our 1Q U.S. estimate of $209mn. (1Q08 WW Revlimid estimate is $276mn). Thalomid NDC data remains strong We estimate that NDC weekly data for Thalomid are tracking about in-line with our 1Q08 U.S. estimate of $109mn, vs $112mn in 4Q07, as Thalomid continues to show strength despite Revlimid’s ramp. Vidaza NDC monthly data tracking modestly ahead We estimate that NDC institutional monthly data captured about 94-95% of Vidaza sales each quarter in 2007. We estimate that the data is tracking modestly ahead of our 1Q08 U.S. estimate of $36mn, vs. $34mn reported by Pharmion in 4Q07. We estimate full-year ‘08 Vidaza U.S. sales of $153mn, vs. $131 in ’07, though it is unclear at this early stage of the integration of Pharmion how much revenue Celgene will realize. Vidaza currently splits the US market in the treatment of MDS with Dacogen. But it could potentially pick up additional penetration if the Dacogen survival data expected around mid-year is not as good Vidaza’s reported 9.4 month improvement (24.4 mos vs. 15 mos). Formidable hematology/oncology franchise Growing Revlimid sales, continued strength in Thalomid and the addition of Vidaza give Celgene a formidable hematology oncology franchise, in our opinion. Combine that with worldwide economics on the three products plus superior P&L leverage and CELG remains top pick for 2008.

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