The coming US dollar crisis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis

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To: Real Man who wrote (5616)	3/29/2008 9:05:23 AM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) of 71475

An interesting discussion: Rate cuts, too much or not enough? minyanville.com ... Where Are the Currency Plays? I would stay short U.S. dollars for the time being. Don’t expect the Europeans to step in anytime soon. The European Central Bank is worried about sharp and excessive moves, but it has its eyes peeled for 1.60. As long as we hold below that price level, I don’t expect any verbal intervention because, in 2004, the EUR/USD rallied 13% in two months before the ECB called the move brutal. If we count 1.59 as the high today, the EUR/USD has only appreciated 10% over the last two months. The ECB’s top priority is inflation and the strong Euro is cushioning the pain on high commodity prices. ..... I continue to like my RTH short. Contrary to popular opinion, low rates will not bail us out this time. The consumer is done, especially after the Fed has fanned the fires of inflation, leaving no room for discretionary spending. As U.S. consumers turn to things like dog food instead of Dolce & Gabbana, retailers are going to feel the pain.

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