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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc.
CY 23.820.0%Apr 16 5:00 PM EST

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To: BUGGI-WO who wrote (3644)3/29/2008 7:44:20 PM
From: bobs10   of 4590
 
you:

things change and I assume, the environment
got more tough from the Q4 earnings announcement.

me:

Yeah, as we keep saying, it probably comes down to demand. Things have changed as memory users have gradually moved to a system that relies more on the memory makers having what the OEMs need in stock rather than the OEMs ordering and holding the inventory in advance. Still that can only be taken so far. The OEMs have schedules and they can't risk being out of parts when needed so unless demand really crapped out in q1 I expect that SPSN is doing ok.

Eclipse samples were started in SP1 in q3 of last year and samples were sent out in q407 with revenues due in H208. Basically, Eclipse combines both MirrorBit NOR and ORNAND on one chip with a controller included for whole platter testing. Besides having a 30% price advantage this package does away with the need for DRAM as XIP NOR performs the DRAM function and BIST is able to reduce most of the back end testing that can add another 30% to the cost of a chip.

In addition, another version of Eclipse for the server is supposed to be out and producing revenue in 08, probably very late 08. This solution is going to negate the need for DRAM in the server/cluster and hence reduce cost, increase density and drastically cut power for data centers. Eclipse along with "Virident's breakthrough innovations in hardware, software, and subsystem design will deliver significant reductions in total cost of ownership and higher performance for companies building industry standard internet server infrastructures."

While I think the current packages of MirrorBit NOR/ORNAND and small amounts of DRAM are very competitive with other current solutions Eclipse is the real thing. That's when the party really begins. And it only gets better in 09 when SPSN goes to 45nm and ORNAND gets twice as dense along with quad bit joining the Eclipse package.
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