Garcia/Burke:
OK. There is no disagreement regarding 96 numbers in the $2 range. Great - that gives ATML a PE of 13, quite low compared to the growth rate. However, the market looks ahead, not behind. If there is concern that earnings could backtrack to $1.50 in 97, as Burke suggests, then the PE is high and negative growth in earnings is not a good sign so there is clearly risk if this is the case.
So, the key question which needs understanding is the reasons why/why not ATML will earn $2.50 as the "experts" have forecasted. I have the same skeptical attitude toward analysts as Burke has.
So please, Burke, share your insights as to why margins are declining. What evidence do you have for this assertion. You are obviously a smart guy, despite whatever critisism is leveled against you here on the thread. I want to learn from you if possible.
I will offer that, technically, the chart is nearing a critical juncture. The recent formation looks like it could be a head and shoulders top. The MACD is negative and TSV has also turned negative recently. On the positive side, the stock is under moderate accumulation and the uptrend line is still intact, though it is close below here. Also it is below its 200, 50 and 25 day MA by a few points. I think if it closes below 23, there could be trouble ahead as Burke is suggesting. |
