Jay, I enjoy your posts here and on "The Financial Collapse of 2001 and Beyond" discussion board. You always bring an interesting perspective.
I share your concerns about the "spin" around Tibet. I have an affinity for the Tibetan culture that is quite personal, but I hate distorted history and propaganda, and geopolitical tactics disguised as humanitarian concern. And I always appreciate the view you bring from the other side of the world.
I don't think I'm as a sophisticated investor as you are, but my strategy I think follows your's fairly closely. My key investment themes for the next 6 months (subject to revision) are:
1 - This is a very, very serious financial episode we are currently living. Structurally on par with the Great Depression of the 1930's, though how it plays out may be quite different.
2 - Expect volatility, and establish and relinquish positions around times of extreme periods of volatility and sentiment.
3 - Generally speaking, de-lever. Seek strong currencies, and look for strong balance sheets that can cushion disappointments on the earnings front.
4 - Balance cash in strong currencies (with gold being the strongest) with positions in commodities subject to "peak everything" dynamics. This is energy, precious metals, base metals, and agricultural commodities.
5 - Don't underestimate the potential for political turmoil and nationalization of natural resources. Select core investments in politically-stable locales.
6 - Current portfolio asset allocation: (i) approx 45% in CDN T-bills; (ii) 23% physical bullion and PM juniors; (iii) 23% Energy plays - diversified amongst oil and gas, with a smattering of coal and uranium; US, CDN, and North Sea; and Deep Sea Drillers, junior E&P companies, and oil & gas service companies (including seismic); and (iv) 9% other.
Any gaping holes in this strategy that you'd care to illuminate?
Best regards,
Glenn |
