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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc.
CY 23.820.0%Apr 16 5:00 PM EST

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To: BUGGI-WO who wrote (3651)3/31/2008 10:39:03 AM
From: bobs10   of 4590
 
you:

Nokia began cancelling orders for handset components in March. Our field checks suggest Nokia may not again order until May.

me:

I wonder how much of that has to do with Eclipse? SPSN has been saying H208 for revenues from Eclipse all along. If Eclipse really is the sort of paradigm changing event management seems to believe it to be then that schedule would be consistent with Nokia wanting to clear out some/all of its older NOR/NAND/DRAM, NOR/ORNAND/DRAM inventory.

Nokia started receiving Eclipse test samples in q407. Also, in the q4 CC management complained that certain manufactures had pushed out some products affecting q4 margins. It's hard to say what's going on but maybe it didn't make sense to create new products without Eclipse and the products had to be altered, maybe a lot?

Last year SPSN built up inventory for the Chinese New Year ramp. Nokia may have gotten enough of that inventory to tide them through the transition period. For SPSN, I assume that those older inventories are being depleted quickly and that SPSN has been building up inventories of Eclipse modules since q307.

Trying to transition to wholly new products can be challenging so I wouldn't write off q2 as yet. Ending Q1 Inventory figures should make for interesting reading if management gives a product break out. The bad news is that TSMC is probably still being used to cover the transition. That means that the $50m savings is probably further down the road.

Anyway, all this is just convenient speculation and no one really knows what's really going on. Still....
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