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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker, Moneytalk and Marketimer
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To: davidk555 who wrote (2058)4/1/2008 2:51:05 AM
From: Math JunkieRead Replies (1) of 2121
 
"But to give you just one example using Bob's market timing, I think you would agree that Bob taking 60% out of equities based on the market's close on December 31, 1999 was a fantastic call (later increased to 65% cash reserves in August 2000). And I think Bob recommending that people put up to 50% of those cash reserves raised which could be up to one third of an entire the portfolio into the QQQQs at $83 in October 2000 was a horrible recommendation."

Agreed, but that leaves out too much for it to be considered support for your original statement, IMO.

I would rate his significant recommendations as follows:

1. Becoming wholeheartedly bullish in 1982 was fantastic.

2. Remaining fully invested through the crash of 1987 was not fantastic, but it wasn't horrible either, because the market was still up for the year.

3. Being bearish in varying degrees from 1988 to 1990 was obviously a mistake, but the underperformance relative to the market was not enough to qualify as horrible.

4. His initial recommendation of MSFT was fantastic.

5. Going bullish again in late 1990, and staying that way through the remainder of the 1990s, was fantastic.

6. Taking most stock market money off the table in January of 2000 was fantastic.

7. Recommending TEFQX at the top does not qualify as horrible because it was limited to 5% of a portfolio.

8. Putting 20-50% of cash reserves into a highly volatile sector of the market in October 2000 was horrible.

9. Going fully invested in March of 2003 was fantastic.

I count five fantastic calls, two fairly ordinary mistakes, and one horrible call.

All IMO, of course.
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