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Biotech / Medical : CVTX - CV Therapeutics, Inc.
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From: mopgcw4/1/2008 3:11:09 AM
   of 411
 
Citi 2.26.08: Conclusion — We are decreasing our target price to $9 from $11. With modest
Ranexa sales growth, we continue to lack conviction that the drug will gain
significant market penetration even if approved in 1st-line angina against more
effective and cheaper drugs.

? What's New — Today CVT announced Ranexa sales of $21M (Citi $21M). The
company also reported GAAP EPS of ($0.57) vs. our ($0.42) est, driven by
lower revs ($22M vs. Citi $26M) and higher expenses ($56M vs Citi $62M).

? Ranexa In Front-line — A label (PDUFA July 28) as a 1st-line agent could make
the drug more marketable and expand the target population in the U.S,
although we believe Ranexa's opportunity in 1st-line is modest at best. A
European approval is expected in mid-'08.

? Skeptical on Partnership — We are skeptical about a partnership, given
Ranexa's modest product profile and limited opportunity as a 1st-line agent.
Even if a partnership is signed, a favorable deal term is unlikely, in our view.

? 2008 Guidance — The mgmt expects >$100M in total rev and <$100M and
<$50M in cash burn in '08 and '09. Moreover, total exp of $50M-$55M/
quarter is expected in '08.

? Regadenoson Approval — The PDUFA date for Regadenoson is March 14, with
the European filing coming in end of '08. However, we caution that a nonapproval
could present a significant downside to the stock.
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