@BUGGI-WO
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You seriously believe Numonyx is worth 2,4-2,5B? Wow.
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I do not believe in either 2.5B Numonyx nor 0.5B Spansion. Either numbers could be wrong, or any one of them could be right. A lot of valuations are rather arbitrary and that makes investing a fun.
Lets forget for a second about future prospects (how good is SP1, stellar or not stellar future of Eclipse vs PCM, just CURRENT production facilities, market share etc....) I know many ppl will crucify me for discarding future, but we simply do not know what will happen. Thus current state is a bit better ground for approximate estimates. From all the numbers ppl here dump it seems that as of NOW these companies should have similar valuation.
Given that we see market dislocation, the interesting question is how to exploit it. And from reading this forum for a little while I got to the following conclusions (I have no opinion just observation. correct me if I wrong.)
1. Most people here are pro Spansion, that is just go long. Somewhat dangerous strategy, as we are still possibly sitting in a bear market.
2. How defend against bear? sell something that should be weaker in the future. It seems that consensus here that perfect sell Numonyx. Unfortunately, it is non tradable. Next best proxy is a weakest company with highest exposure to Numonyx. For me it looks like STM, though STM is up today 5% vs SPSN 2%. Thus I am questioning this approach, this hedge could be way to dirty. Other candidate is SOXX, any other ideas? |
