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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (6295)	10/14/1997 9:32:00 PM
From: Richard J. Byrd	of 94695

Bill: Obviously, in hindsight, I made a stupid mistake in legging out of the long side my INTC spread based on the 1:30 - 3:00pm runup in the stock. The spread on INTC was a good idea. I have generally been successful in spreads ahead of big announcements. You can always make one leg and very often both of them. Your analysis, please. Was it really stupid on my part to assume that the runup in INTC in the three hours before the announcement was because word of a bullish earnings report had leaked out? Or should I have ignored the 1:30-3 runup and looked at the 3:45-4:00pm drop in the stock price as being the inside word leaking out about a bearish report, and legged out of the long side of the spread just before the close of the market? Again, in hindsight, it is obvious that the 3:45-4:00pm dropoff was the real leak. Is this usually true? Would you have changed your position on either of these moves? Anybody want to help with this analysis of a bad trade. Oh well, I blew that spread. At least I got out of the short side with a tiny profit. Dick

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