Ha - I always stated majority of semi pain is self inflicted - and of course the world is not flat either - there is life beyond Budweiser, MacDonalds while Amerika running on Dunkin' Donuts.
Most posters here don't grasp the changes - looks like chipmakers started to throttle back - it's still cyclical but the cycles do NOT run in synch .
And they have a hard time to figure out sales = ASP x units
Inventories down amid soft IC demand
Mark LaPedus
EE Times
(04/01/2008 11:10 AM EDT)
SAN JOSE, Calif. — Good news: Chip inventories are down. Bad news: There is still more trouble ahead for IC makers.
Excess semiconductor inventory is projected to decline to $2.9 billion by the end of the first quarter, down 14.6 percent from a revised $3.4 billion level in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to a preliminary forecast from iSuppli Corp. (El Segundo, Calif.)
This follows a 21 percent reduction in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to the market research firm.
''The expected drop in surplus stockpiles in the first quarter mainly is due to a pullback in semiconductor production among suppliers,'' said Rosemary Farrell, analyst for iSuppli (El Segundo, Calif.), in a statement. ''In reaction to the lackluster demand late in December, chip suppliers began throttling back on manufacturing. This allowed their customers to draw down their inventories.''
But IC inventory levels could jump again. ''With inventory levels high at the semiconductor suppliers themselves, and with worries mounting regarding market conditions, stockpiles could begin rising again in the second quarter,'' according to iSuppli. ''If the end-demand situation worsens, and order cancellations begin rolling in, then suppliers will be forced to add to their already bloated inventories.''
There are mixed signals in the marketplace. ''Although the PC supply chain remains concerned about inventory and demand for microprocessors, the slowdown in the price war between Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. has removed much uncertainty from the market,'' according to iSuppli.
''DRAM inventory increased slightly at the end of February and iSuppli expects average selling prices (ASPs) for these memory chips to keep sliding throughout March. DRAM ASPs are expected to hit bottom in the second quarter,'' according to the firm.
''Lower-than-expected demand and pricing for NAND flash in the first quarter led Intel to reduce its financial outlook. The company plans to write off excess NAND inventory at the end of March. As iSuppli has reported, weak consumer trends are causing buyers to cut their expected NAND order levels for 2008, with Apple Inc. the most notable example,'' it said. |
