@Kir
"
I know many ppl will crucify me for discarding future, but we simply do not know what will happen. Thus current state is a bit better ground for approximate estimates. From all the numbers ppl here dump it seems that as of NOW these companies should have similar valuation.
"
Correct. Thats why I said, that either SPSN has to go
sharply up or Numonyx down or a mix of it.
I have problems with Numonyx when it comes to products
outside their key competencies - NOR. They will make some
bit of DRAM and/or NAND, but how should I value this? All
DRAM guys are now making losses and the big names have many
many advantages compared to "small, new" Numonyx - this fits
with DRAM and NAND. I think they will ship some products due
to long contracts but thats it. In the normal market they
have no chance here against Samsung/Hynix/Micron(IM)/Toshiba.
When it comes to NOR, we have discussed all the prospects here
in length, nothing new to write about. As I said a few days
ago, Numonyx was loosing MSS all the last year and the
progress imho just started, because they lost many many design
wins due to the many unknowns in 2007. The outcome will just
appear in 2008, where they will sink (imho) under SPSN in NOR
revs. So, we don't know exact "earnings" numbers for them,
but I think its a healthy assumption, that these aren't better
than SPSN ones. So, when it comes to a valuation many more
aspects will of course play a role, but under these conditions
I really don't know, why Numonyx should be worth more than
SPSN, which is at 160x2,8 = 450Mio. right now. So, Newco is
now (roughly) 2400/450 = 5,3x higher valued than SPSN. For me
at least thats only crazy.
BUGGI |
