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Strategies & Market Trends : SiliconInvestor All Stars Forum

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (1649)	4/2/2008 11:30:56 AM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (4) of 1718

Yes, this current recession is priced in. The Fed will soon enough be fighting and/or global central banks will be fighting inflation. This will be a killer for the U.S. economy as money will become tighter while the Fed attempts to "reflate". Then we get another recession which I think will be quite severe. I'm not sure the Fed will have the firepower to survive. As you can see Fed Funds is now at 2.25%. Right now though, it looks like we're in a sweet spot. Since I'm a momo guy, I am focusing on the stuff that stayed the strongest; steel, solars, rails, etc. And of course anything which benefits from the American Peso will do well as well. I think for the economy as a whole, it will feel like recession in the next 18 months (even though officially we'll be growing), until we get into the nasty recession. Jobs and income will decline and household wealth will be stagnant to down depending on the stock market (housing will continue to fall). John Mauldin call it muddle-through. Rather than 2003, this is more like 1999.

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