President Barack Obama Message Board

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Politics : President Barack Obama

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To: michael97123 who wrote (16095)	4/2/2008 10:25:59 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) of 149317

It's all about probabilities. Nothing's every certain, but you are giving the 5% probability more than it's fair share of airing on this thread. If the tone of your posts were proportional to the stats, then you'd post 19 "reasons Obama will win" posts for every "doubting Thomas" post. The fact that you don't is more a reflection of your utility factor. In other words, you are hyper-risk averse. I'm also risk-averse, but tend closer to neutral, which allows me to make a call on Obama's eventual election based on statistics more readily than you. Then again, I've spent a lifetime looking at stats and making business decisions based on them.

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