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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc.

CY 23.82

0.0%

Apr 16 5:00 PM EST

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To: Biomaven who wrote (3713)	4/3/2008 9:59:54 AM
From: bobs10	Read Replies (1) of 4590

you: No it's not. For one thing, they probably get a dividend which the Common does not, and their liquidation preference is clearly worth something as well. me: Well, I think we look at things differently. Yeah, there is some value to a dividend, but to me the risk of the company going belly up more than off sets any such advantage. To me this deal still looks like a rat hole down which money will be shoved for as far out as I can see. Which gets us back to the original topic which was placing a value on Numonyx. In any case if there is some increased value to the FPs deal it only lowers the total value of the deal. FPs probably has a very limited liability outside of the $150m which only leaves INTC/STM with the deep pockets to support the inevitable losses. The only question is how much longer this charade will go on. Remarkably, INTC seems to have a rather high tolerance for pain. I wonder if STM feels the same way? To me this Numonyx stuff is just a side show as are the NOR/NAND/DRAM guys. The NAND market conditions of late have provided me with a much better gut feeling about how competitive the various alternatives are. To me there is only one thing that matters and that is that SPSN execute to the products described in the time frames indicated with the cost advantages stated. If those things happen then SPSN will do a lot better than OK. If not then we have another ball game. The SPSN price action of late, while welcomed, is merely a response to a deeply oversold condition in a very slow volume market. The conditions that led to the surge are rapidly disappearing and only fundamentals will continue the up-trend. A couple of weeks from now we'll know more.

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