Just an observation and a thought...
The Intel part of WIntel spoke today with an earnings of 88 cents/shr (3 cents below the estimates). I continue to think that this part of WIntel will have an impressive growth due to their flexibility and ability to participate in the computing/Networking model as defined by Sun VIA Java. However the W part of WIntel (namely Microsoft) will face a different harsh story! And perhaps as early as next Monday when MSFT reports its earnings some people maybe a little disappointed. Although the big shock will arrive at the end of Q4 and beyond - it is simply a matter of time! MSFT's only chance of continued growth is to bend over to Sun's every wish with Java (if they can get over their dillusions of godhood), thus making it possible for them to grow through their NT server line of product. Their NT server can be used as a middle tier in conjunction with UNIX servers in a computing model defined by Sun. And thats basically it, and the rest is nothing but idiotic hypes around NT (especially NT 5.0)! (i.e. all these talks of NT growing by itself is absolute nonesense. The only way NT can grow if it can participate in the computing model defined by Sun, and this I am most confident of)!
In any event and just my opinion, in case the stocks of companies such as (in the order of importance) SUNW, IBM, HWP, CSCO, COMS, ASND and smaller server makers such as ASPX come down due to WIntel's problems because of the mentality that Wall Street seems to have with these 2, I believe it will be a great opportunity to buy the stocks of the companies mentioned (server makers, NC makers, and those providing the infrastructures for them namely networking companies) rather than buying the WIntel shares! The world is about to change dramatically starting Q4 and beyond as far as computing is concerned, and it is definite that Past is no longer an indication of future! (i.e. the astronomical growth rate of WIntel is about to end - especially the W part of WIntel)!
Regards,
Addi Jamshidi |
