The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Tommaso who wrote (114749)	4/4/2008 1:08:21 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (5) of 306849

Yes, we're long overdue. I'm pretty sure this is the one. A bear just has to survive the violent bear market rallies. This one is about what I expected so far, I just got carried away with the news flow in the middle and thought it was done. Silly me. And missed that key bit about GS LEH MS MER borrowing from the discount window at 0%. Funny how giving the criminals access to leverage again even for a few weeks gooses the market. I'm amazed at how long the homebuilder runs have gone one. Never would have thought they could possibly assemble six-month long inverse head&shoulders patterns. Now I've exited those positions - too much risk if they do break out. The implications would be shocking - another multi-month rally in homebuilders? To what, 2X book value? In the face of the biggest real estate collapse in modern history? Oh well, nobody said the pigmen made sense - they just game what they can game. Nothing quite like forced buying via short squeeze. The market is going up because the pigmen have access to leverage again. And it will go down, not due to some news event, but when the pigs feel like they've made a big enough killing and decide to exit their positions. Wall Street used to cooperate and help the cycles move along - now all they do is look to game whatever they think they can game. Good business if you've got access to all that capital I suppose. Serious agents of misallocation of capital though. They need to be purged, the sooner the better, but Bernacky won't let that happen. I'm hoping the Invisible Hand is even stronger than the pigs... `BC

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