The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (114820)	4/4/2008 2:21:23 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (3) of 306849

>> Personally I doubt we get the crash everyone expects without a major rise in long term rates. Perhaps the real crash happens after the real estate downturn ends, inflationary pressures really kick in and the fed is forced to create a recession to curb inflation as it did that last period?<< FWIW, I'm leaning this way. The best hedges (ex-the mid-March commodity unwind) for this ramp have been commodities. If Ben is successful in reliquifying the borkers (which is synonymous with reliquifying the hedgies), then commodities will soar. That's one of the reasons we seriously NEEDED a recession. If we don't get one, we'll see a good old fashioned crack-up boom, oil at 200 and gold at 2000 by 2010. I've still got SKF, SDS and 'covered-short' COF with a smattering of poots, but I'm mainly long COW/energy/golds.

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