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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: RealMuLan who wrote (77266)4/5/2008 11:52:49 AM
From: RealMuLan  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
A LOOK AT (COUGH,COUGH) FUNDAMENTALS
Chart Spotlight
by Carl Swenlin
DecisionPoint.com
April 4, 2008
financialsense.com

************************** S&P 500 FUNDAMENTALS ****************************

The real P/E for the S&P 500 is based on "as reported" or GAAP earnings
(calculated using Generally Accepted Accounting Principals), and it is the
standard for historical earnings comparisons. The normal range for the GAAP
P/E ratio is between 10 (undervalued) to 20 (overvalued).

Market cheerleaders invariably use "pro forma" or "operating earnings,"
which exclude some expenses and are deceptively optimistic. They are
useless and should be ignored.

The following are the most recently reported and projected twelve-month
trailing (TMT) earnings and price/earnings ratios (P/Es) according to Standard and Poors.

Est       Est       Est
                               2007 Q4   2008 Q1   2008 Q2   2008 Q3
TMT P/E Ratio (GAAP).......:      20.7      22.5      24.8      23.6
TMT P/E Ratio (Operating)..:      16.6      16.9      16.9      16.1

TMT Earnings (GAAP)........:     66.18     60.95     55.15     57.92
TMT Earnings (Operating)...:     82.54     81.08     81.17     85.20


For a more thorough discussion of earnings and other fundamentals
click here.

Based upon the latest GAAP earnings the following would be the approximate
S&P 500 values at the cardinal points of the normal historical value range.
They are calculated simply by multiplying the GAAP EPS by 10, 15, and 20:

Undervalued (SPX if P/E = 10): 662
Fair Value (SPX if P/E = 15): 993
Overvalued (SPX if P/E = 20): 1324

*****************************************************************************

The following chart helps put current events into an historical perspective, showing the earnings crash that accompanied the last bear market, as well as the current earings decline. I don't know how anyone could be optimistic about this picture.
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