<Both will be deployed>
Agreed. (As you know, this was not the point of my posts)
<we need the cable fellows to push the RBOC's into action.>
What we REALLY need are compelling reasons (ie., killer apps) to drive the customers and PUSH deployment. In my opinion, where there are cable modems, ADSL will not win - so cable deployment will create only a secondary ADSL/bandwidth market momentum.
<If 100 houses want two-way cable modems, all 500 houses must be upgraded to HFC. The Telco's can provide ADSL to those 100 houses and leave the other 400 alone.>
First, cable companies will upgrade to HFC to carry more premium cable TV services, and are already doing this.
Second, again, MY point was that where there *already* are cable modems, ADSL will not have much penetration. As the cables buildout HFC (and upgrade to 2-way cable CO equipment), this competition will more seriously threaten ADSL - both of which are likely a few years out.
<The Bell Atlantic deal with DSC/Westell is in the $500-$600 per LINE range>
This is only the *equipment* cost. This is nowhere near the real telco cost of technical manhours.
<I didn't know the cable modem was that expensive, $350-$400. I'm guessing it going to cost about $500-$1000/per-paying-customer to upgrade that 500 house neighborhood to HFC.>
The modem cost can be payed by customer upfront, or payed off through renting over 2 years (at the $45/month rate). And as has been noted, cable does not have the costs of maintaining DSLAMs with thousands of CO ADSL units for heat/power/space/surge/crosstalk problems, or field problems like taps/coils and old copper.
<what is the cost difference between installing an HFC system and the Telco's installing fiber into an ONU for a VDSL solution?>
Since cable will get cable TV income from more premium channels that HFC will enable, this is hard to gauge. Depending on VDSL equipment costs and just considering equipment alone, I would guess VDSL is more costly. When you factor in technician maintenance costs, it would seem to be much higher for VDSL.
Steve
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