Obama May Not Have Fully Contained
Damage From Ex-Pastor
By NICK TIMIRAOS
WSJ.COM
April 7, 2008; Page A4
Sen. Barack Obama's Philadelphia speech on race relations last month seemed to put the controversial remarks of his former pastor behind him. But three weeks later, there is evidence of lingering damage.
"It has not been defused," says David Parker, a North Carolina Democratic Party official and unpledged superdelegate. He says his worries about Republicans questioning Sen. Obama's patriotism prompted him to raise the issue of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr.'s remarks in conversations with both the Obama and Clinton campaigns.
[Barack Obama]
"I'm concerned about seeing Willie Horton ads during the general election," Mr. Parker says, referring to campaign ads that Republicans widely credited for helping defeat Michael Dukakis in 1988. Mr. Parker said the Wright controversy didn't hurt his opinion of Mr. Obama.
National polls show the Illinois senator hasn't suffered among Democratic primary voters. Contests in Pennsylvania on April 22, Indiana on May 6 and West Virginia on May 13 could serve as an important test. His performance among largely white, less-urban voters could show how well he can secure critical swing states in November.
Sen. Hillary Clinton has argued that she can better withstand Republican attacks. One of her senior advisers last week told the Talking Points Memo blog that he had raised the Wright issue with superdelegates. The campaign didn't dispute the report. "[C]ertainly, as you recall, it was very heavily in the news and people, you know, sometimes have it on their minds," Sen. Clinton told reporters last week.
Recent polls suggest that, in key swing states, the New York senator fares better in head-to-head matchups with Republican nominee Sen. John McCain than does Sen. Obama. In Ohio, Sen. Clinton led Sen. McCain 48% to 39%, while Sen. Obama led Sen. McCain 43% to 42% in Quinnipiac University polls conducted in the last week of March.
In Pennsylvania, Sen. Clinton had a 48% to 40% lead against Sen. McCain while Sen. Obama was ahead 43% to 39%. The polls credit Sen. Clinton's advantage to her strength among white voters. No Democrat has won the presidency with a majority of white voters since 1964, and no president from either party has been elected without winning two of the three swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida since 1960. In those three states, some 23% of white Democrats would defect to Sen. McCain in a matchup with Sen. Obama, compared with 11% who would abandon Sen. Clinton, according to the Quinnipiac polls.
[Chart]
"It's a reasonable assumption that ... part of that drop-off among white voters would result from his pastor's notoriety," says Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown.
The Obama campaign says the concerns are overblown and the party will rally around Sen. Obama if he wins the nomination, in part because Sen. Clinton will campaign for him. "Anybody who's intractably opposed to us now, they probably were never going to vote for us in the first place," says Obama campaign manager David Plouffe. The campaign has also contended that it can put into play traditionally Republican states like Colorado and Virginia, states Sen. Obama carried in the primaries with broad demographic support, and that it has a proven record of boosting turnout with new voters.
While Republicans initially believed that Sen. Clinton would be an easier opponent, strategists say they worry less about facing Sen. Obama now. "It doesn't matter now. Either one of them could be beaten by John McCain at this point," says Rich Galen, a Republican strategist.
To be sure, Sen. Clinton risks a backlash if her campaign is seen as using race to undermine the eventual nominee and alienate new voters and African-Americans. "Rev. Wright is one of the main vulnerabilities the Clinton campaign can point to," says Democratic strategist Joe Trippi. "But superdelegates are not going to look kindly on them trying to exploit this."
The Wright question is a nonissue for Chris Redfern, an undecided superdelegate and the chair of the Ohio Democratic Party. He says it shouldn't be a part of discussions. "It presupposes the notion that superdelegates can't think for themselves," he says. Indeed, Sen. Obama has picked up 14 superdelegates since March 5, compared with nine for Sen. Clinton, according to the Associated Press. Since Sen. Obama's Philadelphia address on race, he has won big endorsements from New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey Jr.
Exploiting the issue could also alienate Clinton supporters. "I have many, many friends who are involved with [the Clinton] campaign, but I have to say, what I find them doing is deeply disappointing," says Tripp Jones, a Clinton supporter and Massachusetts Democrat who worked on Michael Dukakis's 1988 presidential bid.
Among older, white voters, with whom Sen. Obama has struggled, the Wright controversy could make his climb steeper. Al Neyman, a 76-year-old from Indianapolis, said that he had been on the fence between the two Democrats until learning about Sen. Obama's pastor. "To me, he's un-American sitting in that church hearing those kinds of things and not leaving," he says.
Not everyone feels that way. "I'm not voting for his pastor," says Mike Maloney, 60, a self-described conservative independent from Highland, Ind., who is supporting Sen. Obama.
Even for Democrats turned off by the episode, their desire to win may trump all else. Carol Wunsch, 61 of New Albany, Ind., had hoped for a Clinton-Obama ticket until she learned of the Wright relationship, which she says, "scares me to death." But if he's the Democratic nominee, she sighs, "I would vote for him, I guess. But I still don't like him."
online.wsj.com |
